The world is on a bumpy journey to a new destination and the New Normal.
Mohamed El-Erian
America's downgrade may serve as a wakeup call for its policymakers. It is an unambiguous and loud signal of the country's eroding economic strength and global standing. It renders urgent the need to regain the initiative through better economic policymaking and more coherent governance.
Because in the New Normal you are more worried about the return of your capital, not return on your capital.
Simply put, investors should own less equities, more bonds, more global investments, more cash and more dry ammunition.
For the next three years, we're going to see different economies work out different problems. For European economies, especially Greece, it would be through default.
The best and most sustainable love story for markets is one based on a healthy and dynamic real economy that creates jobs and opportunities for many more people.
After many decades of Disney movies, we have been conditioned to expect princesses to fall in love quickly with their charming princes and 'live happily ever after.'
Investors have few spare tires left. Think of the image of a car on a bumpy road to an uncertain destination that has already used up its spare tire. The cash reserves of people have been eaten up by the recent market volatility.
Investors have to ask themselves two questions. How much can we grow our investments? And, can we afford our mistakes?
Investors should invest on what they know. The biggest mistake is to invest on what they don't know.
Most people are under exposed to global assets, including foreign stocks, bonds and currencies.
The once-unthinkable loss of the AAA rating will constitute a further hit to already fragile business and consumer confidence.
Investors should be cautiously positioned as the global economy and markets face major uncertainties. The downgrade will be a further headwind to growth and job creation in the U.S.
As a whole, investors should welcome attempts to safeguard the integrity of markets. You need very clear rules applied to markets.
It is hard to imagine that, having downgraded the US, S & P will not follow suit on at least one of the other members of the dwindling club of sovereign AAAs. If this were to materialise and involve a country like France, for example, it could complicate the already fragile efforts by Europe to rescue countries in its periphery.
If the Scottish people decide to opt for independence, it would not be a good idea for Scotland to maintain a very rigid link to the pound.
The global realignment is accelerating the migration of growth and wealth dynamics from the industrial world to the larger emerging economies.
There seems to be no limit to the exciting possibilities that come from combining technical innovations, the Internet, and social media.
Falling entry barriers and lower access costs have significantly democratised participation, whether in production or consumption.
